Mesoscale Discussion 1979 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CST Fri Dec 10 2021 Areas affected...Parts of west central through northeastern Missouri and adjacent portions of southeastern Iowa and west central Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 102044Z - 102245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated supercell development potentially becoming capable of producing tornadoes appears possible across parts of north central Missouri prior to 6 PM CST. While it is not certain that a watch will be needed, trends are being monitored for this possibility. DISCUSSION...The center of a deepening surface cyclone is now north of Topeka, with a corridor of 3-5 mb 2-hourly surface pressure falls along a developing warm frontal zone to its east shifting east-northeastward across northern Missouri. This is occurring in advance of consolidating, larger-scale mid-level troughing forecast to progress east of the the Colorado Rockies into the central Great Plains by 11/00Z. This is preceded by a short wave perturbation of subtropical eastern Pacific origin, which appears to still include one prominent mid-level cyclonic vorticity center approaching the Kansas City area. It appears that the stronger forcing for ascent associated with the cyclonic vorticity center will progress east-northeast of the Kansas City area, before substantive boundary-layer destabilization can take place. However, models suggest that a narrow corridor of at least modest, but deepening, boundary layer moisture is possible along a 50-60+ kt southwesterly pre-frontal 850 mb jet axis across western through northern Missouri. As the surface warm frontal zone continues to advance north of the Missouri River/Interstate 70 corridor, the environment along it might become conducive to isolated strong to severe storm development prior to 11/00Z, particularly south of Chillicothe into areas southeast of Kirksville. Even with some moistening, relatively warm mid-level temperatures may tend to minimize mixed-layer CAPE, but beneath 90-100 kt southwesterly 500 mb flow, hodographs are forecast to become favorable for supercells potentially accompanied by a risk for producing tornadoes. ..Kerr/Thompson.. 12/10/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX... LAT...LON 39889333 40579133 39709124 39329135 38859228 38509349 39009388 39889333
Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1979
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