Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 546

   Mesoscale Discussion 0546
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0347 PM CDT Wed May 05 2021

   Areas affected...Portions of eastern Nebraska into northern Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 052047Z - 052215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A couple instances of severe hail or a damaging gusts
   cannot be ruled out with one of the stronger storms. A WW issuance
   is not expected.

   DISCUSSION...High-based, low-topped convection continues to
   intensify ahead of a slowly east-southeastward advancing cold front
   across portions of the Central Plains per latest MRMS mosaic radar
   imagery. Immediately along the front, latest Mesoanalysis depicts up
   to 500 J/kg MLCAPE driven primarily by ample insolation, mid 40s
   surface dewpoints, and 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rates advected
   eastward by modest mid-level flow. One of the stronger storms may
   briefly support a couple instances of severe hail, though hail is
   expected to remain small overall given the very skinny CAPE vertical
   profiles. A damaging gust also cannot be ruled out given the
   relatively dry boundary layer, as also inferred by near 20F
   temperature/dewpoint depressions via the latest METAR observations.

   The severe threat area should be confined to a limited area east of
   the front given overall scant low-level moisture and slow eastward
   advection of the steeper lapse rates. The locally confined, brief
   nature of the severe threat precludes a WW issuance.

   ..Squitieri/Grams.. 05/05/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

   LAT...LON   39089897 39479916 40029890 40799836 41789785 42029771
               42149718 41979669 41599641 41489639 41049625 39989655
               39319756 39139847 39089897