Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 547

   Mesoscale Discussion 0547
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0639 PM CDT Wed May 05 2021

   Areas affected...Southwest kansas northwest Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 052339Z - 060115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...High-based thunderstorms may pose a risk for isolated
   damaging wind gusts early this evening. Limited confidence exists on
   how storms will evolve over the next couple of hours.

   DISCUSSION...As of 2320 UTC, RADAR observations showed a loosely
   organized line of high-based thunderstorms near the KS/OK Border.
   These storms have recently produced severe hail and wind gusts in
   the vicinity of DDC. Downstream of the ongoing storms, SPC
   mesoanalysis and surface observations show a relatively warm airmass
   with temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s F. Moisture remains
   limited with surface dewpoints in the 40s supporting only modest
   destabilization. However, vicinity soundings show deep inverted V
   profiles with around 500 J/kg of MUCAPE above the steep surface
   lapse rates. Given the parameter space, it appears likely these
   storms will continue to pose a risk of isolated damaging wind gusts
   over the next couple of hours as storm outflow mergers support
   greater cold pool development downstream into portions of Northwest
   Oklahoma. Hi-res guidance suggests that storms will gradually begin
   to weaken near sunset with the loss of diurnal heating. The limited
   spatial and temporal threat suggests that a watch may not be needed,
   but severe trends will be monitored.

   ..Lyons/Hart.. 05/05/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

   LAT...LON   35689893 36109974 36489995 37020032 37429985 37639933
               37639896 37429821 37249781 36969750 36569738 36339753
               36109763 35849788 35729826 35689893