Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 563

   Mesoscale Discussion 0563
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0606 PM CDT Sat May 08 2021

   Areas affected...Kansas...Southern Nebraska...Far Northwest Missouri

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 153...

   Valid 082306Z - 090100Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 153
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Wind-damage, large hail and a tornado threat will continue
   to be possible across central and northern Kansas into southern
   Nebraska over the next few hours. Weather watch issuance will be
   needed soon across parts of northeast Kansas, southeast Nebraska and
   far northwest Missouri.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar imagery shows two clusters of strong to
   severe thunderstorms. The first is located in west-central Kansas
   with the second in far south-central Nebraska. These storms are
   located along an axis of moderate instability with the RAP
   estimating MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. A 994 mb surface
   low is located over southwest Kansas. The low is associated with a
   shortwave trough over far eastern Colorado, evident on water vapor
   imagery. As the shortwave moves eastward low-level flow will
   increase across the central Plains. This will support the
   development of a MCS. The latest WSR-88D VWP from Hastings shows 0-6
   km shear 55 kt with 0-3 km storm relative helicities near 350 m2/s2.
   This combined with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8.0 C/km will support
   supercells with large hail and possibly a tornado threat. As the
   storms merge into a bowing line segment, the wind-damage threat will
   increase later this evening.

   ..Broyles.. 05/08/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

   LAT...LON   39559976 38549970 37929958 37899897 38369795 38769591
               39179507 39609489 40069492 40449540 40559623 40489863
               40109960 39559976