Timing of the Storm

It seems that the forecast models have for the most part agreed on an amount of snow for Jefferson County. Below is the current graphic from the NWS showing forecast amounts.

We now need to try and figure out the timing element of the storm to allow us to make decisions on how to proceed tomorrow. Below are two different model runs for 6 am tomorrow morning. Both models show very little accumulation by 6am.

Next, let’s look below at the 9am run and see what they show us. The “NAM” on the left isn’t showing accumulation, but the “GFS” on the right is showing an additional 2 inches of snow for the 3 hour period.

Now moving on to the noon run. The NAM on the left shows heavy snow just getting ready to enter the County and the GFS on the right shows 6 inches already. Basically if you analysis the models it appears that the NAM is showing the system moving slower to the Northeast than the GFS. Now you have to make a judgment on which one is handling this system better. The one thing that really stands out to me is when you compare the 6am to the 9 am NAM it is showing 7 inches of snow falling in one place in Oklahoma. I feel this is excessive and it allows me to have more confidence in the GFS model on the right.

Now we can look at the 3pm models and see where we are at. Basically both models are showing heavy snow in Jefferson County at this point. Now this will lead us to have fairly high confidence that we will see heavy snow by tomorrow afternoon.