MD 1037 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 1037
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0954 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2017
Areas affected...Portions of eastern Kansas and northern/central
Missouri
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 150254Z - 150430Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms re-developing across northern Missouri and
eastern Kansas this evening may pose the potential for a few
damaging gusts and instances of large hail. Trends are being
monitored for possible watch issuance.
DISCUSSION...Isolated/widely scattered thunderstorms have developed
west of a decaying MCS this evening, and a couple of these cells
possess relatively deep cores, with 9-km CAPPI reflectivity upwards
of 50 dBZ or so. The 00Z TOP sounding sampled an uncapped
environment characterized by rich boundary-layer moisture and steep
mid-level lapse rates. While nocturnal cooling has decreased
mixed-layer CAPE somewhat, modified soundings still suggest upwards
of 3000 J/kg and little inhibition is present. In turn, weak
large-scale forcing for ascent should be sufficient to maintain
developing convection into early tonight. Deep-layer shear is
relatively weak, but thermodynamic profiles would support a few
damaging gusts and perhaps large hail in association with stronger,
organized updrafts. Therefore, trends are being monitored for
continued robust development, which would necessitate watch
issuance.
..Picca/Guyer.. 06/15/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...TOP...
LAT...LON 38819652 39829514 40719352 40419224 39529188 38629191
38309333 38289539 38599630 38819652
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2suD0Qx
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