MD 1039 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR A LARGE PART OF KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1039
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017
Areas affected...A large part of Kansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely
Valid 151749Z - 152015Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is forthcoming.
DISCUSSION...Cumulus fields are becoming increasingly agitated along
a composite boundary extending west-east from west of Russell to
southwest of Hill City. Explosive thunderstorm development is
expected within this corridor in the 1830Z-2000Z time frame.
Widespread strong insolation is supporting the erosion of modest
capping aloft, and an upward trend is already noted in
shallow-convective processes -- thus relatively early convective
development is expected. SBCAPE of 4000-6000 J/kg is noted south of
the boundary, with 25-40 kt of effective shear. Initial supercell
structures capable of very large hail and severe winds will be
likely. Given the anticipated concentration of intense cold pools
aided by DCAPE of 1300-1700 J/kg, upscale growth into a
east-southeastward/southeastward-moving bowing MCS will likely occur
thereafter. Widespread severe winds are expected, and localized
pockets of 70-80 mph winds are also likely with line-embedded
meso-vortices as convection advances across the region through into
the late afternoon/early evening hours.
..Cohen/Hart.. 06/15/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...
LAT...LON 37179903 37700015 38540048 39219954 39859737 39519610
38119588 37369604 37139665 37179903
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2trD8wu
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