MD 0105 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHERN VA…DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA…CENTRAL MD
Mesoscale Discussion 0105
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0556 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2020
Areas affected...northern VA...District of Columbia...central MD
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 071156Z - 071300Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Strong to localized severe gusts (50-60 mph) are possible
with a narrow, low-topped convective band rapidly moving across
northern VA and the greater D.C. area during the 12z-1330z period.
DISCUSSION...KLWX radar imagery shows an intensifying band of
low-topped convection with a few lightning flashes with the deeper
convection exhibiting 20kft echo tops. Surface analysis shows a
surface low immediately northwest of D.C. developing to the
east-northeast. A narrow plume of weakly buoyant air, with surface
temperatures in the upper 50s and dewpoints in the upper 50s, is
located downstream of the convective band over northern/eastern VA
into MD. Objective analysis indicates around 250 J/kg SBCAPE with
40 kt effective shear. Given the strong, deep forcing for ascent
co-located with weak instability, it is possible a few strong to
locally severe gusts may accompany the bowing portions of the
convective band. The damaging-gust threat appears too confined in
space/time to warrant a severe thunderstorm watch.
..Smith/Edwards.. 02/07/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...
LAT...LON 39047766 39257701 39187648 38647665 38297716 37927819
39047766
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2NaLROL
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