MD 1055 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN NE…NORTHERN KS…WESTERN IA
Mesoscale Discussion 1055
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0141 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017
Areas affected...Central/eastern NE...Northern KS...Western IA
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 161841Z - 162015Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm development is possible within the
next 1-2 hours, with an increase in the coverage of the threat later
this afternoon. The threat of damaging wind and very large hail will
likely result in the need for watch issuance.
DISCUSSION...At 1830Z, towering cumulus is developing across
southwest NE in the vicinity of a dryline, with additional attempts
at surface-based cumulus development further north near a surface
low across north-central NE. Continued strong heating and the
glancing influence of a vort max moving across the Dakotas will
eventually result in the development of scattered thunderstorms from
southwest into central/north-central NE. Initial development will
likely remain somewhat isolated and occur within a hot and
deeply-mixed environment, with sufficient effective shear in place
to support organized storm structures including supercells.
Further east, rich low-level moisture is in the process of returning
into portions of eastern NE in the wake of last night's MCS. Strong
to extreme buoyancy will be in place across this region later this
afternoon, and as thunderstorms move into this environment, a few
intense supercells capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and
perhaps a tornado or two will be possible. Some upscale growth is
possible late this afternoon (becoming more likely toward evening),
which would result in the development of an enhanced wind damage
threat expanding into portions of northeast KS, northwest MO, and
western IA. One or more watches will be required to cover this
threat later this afternoon into this evening.
..Dean/Hart.. 06/16/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...GLD...
LAT...LON 40480077 40800020 41359944 41769933 42059945 42369945
42659909 42789836 42669691 42109602 41179563 40479573
39759625 39739798 39970077 40480077
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2sByKi3
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