MD 1069 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF ERN KS
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1069
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0439 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 280939Z - 281145Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A SMALL CLUSTER OF STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL
CONTINUE MOVING SSEWD OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...WITH LOCALLY
GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...A SMALL/FAIRLY WELL-ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS CONTINUES MOVING SSEWD AT NEAR 30 KT ACROSS PARTS OF N
CENTRAL/NERN KS ATTM. WHILE ELEVATED ABOVE A SHALLOW STABLE
LAYER...AND DESPITE VERY WEAK FLOW THROUGH THE LOWEST 3 KM PER MODEL
POINT-FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND CONFIRMED BY LATEST TWX /TOPEKA KS/
WSR-88D VWP...WIND GUSTS OF 50-60 MPH HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN THE PAST
HALF HOUR WITH THE STRONGEST CELL NOW MOVING INTO DICKINSON CO.
THOUGH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/MODERATE ELEVATED CAPE WILL
SUPPORT CONTINUATION OF THE STORMS AND 30 KT NNWLYS NEAR H5 DRIVE
CONTINUED SSELY STORM MOTION...DOWNSTREAM SEVERE RISK SHOULD REMAIN
LIMITED/ISOLATED DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY-LAYER STABILITY
AND LACK OF MORE FAVORABLE FLOW.
..GOSS/THOMPSON.. 06/28/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 39129770 39269731 39109675 38649633 38069620 37699667
37929750 38819786 39129770
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://1.usa.gov/294QEkn
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