SPC MD 1086

MD 1086 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 308… FOR TX LOW ROLLING PLAINS / CAPROCK

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1086
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1148 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...TX LOW ROLLING PLAINS / CAPROCK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 308...

VALID 290448Z - 290515Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 308
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...ISOLATED 35-50 KT GUST POTENTIAL WILL PROBABLY PERSIST IN
THE NEAR TERM.

DISCUSSION...RADAR IMAGERY...IR CLOUD-TOP WARMING...AND W TX MESONET
SITES ALL INDICATE A WEAKENING IN A ONCE-SEVERE QLCS AS IT MOVES
SSWWD INTO THE TX LOW ROLLING PLAINS.  OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS
MLCINH IS APPROACHING -100 J/KG DOWNSTREAM OF THE QLCS. 
NONETHELESS...THE ORGANIZED COLD POOL MAY MAINTAIN ENOUGH OF AN
UPDRAFT/DOWNDRAFT FEEDBACK LOOP TO YIELD A LOCALIZED SEVERE GUST
THREAT FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT HOUR.  HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL
BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLING AND LESSENING BUOYANCY WILL TEND TO DIMINISH
THE OVERALL RISK FOR SEVERE GUSTS REACHING THE SURFACE.

..SMITH.. 06/29/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   32570001 33110128 33870171 34220050 33660008 33389922
            32570001 

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from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://1.usa.gov/29aTbda