MD 1156 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS…EASTERN COLORADO…AND FAR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1156
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 PM CDT Wed Jul 25 2018
Areas affected...Portions of Western Kansas...Eastern Colorado...and
Far Southern Nebraska
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 251856Z - 252130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Storms are expecting to develop this afternoon with some
of the storms likely becoming severe. Hail/wind are the main
threats.
DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms has been moving southeast
throughout the morning over Nebraska and into northern Kansas. Just
to the west of this storm cluster, storms are expected to develop
along/near frontal boundaries stretching across northern Kansas and
into eastern Colorado. Strong daytime heating (surface temperatures
90+ F) should help focus convective initiation near these boundaries
and storms will form in a convectively conducive environment
characterized by MLCAPE of 1500-3000 J/kg and effective bulk shear
of 30-50 knots. This should promote multicellular convection with
rotating storms capable of producing severe hail/wind this afternoon
and into the evening. These storms could organize upscale into a
QLCS this evening and track south-southeast across far eastern
Colorado and western/central Kansas. A watch is possible given the
eventual likelihood of severe storms.
..Nauslar/Hart.. 07/25/2018
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...
LAT...LON 40249977 40430035 40380068 40040145 39800203 39680261
39500295 39160304 38770291 38300263 37640188 37580136
37560078 37509972 37689911 38079838 38209814 38389776
38659767 38869775 39149801 39539847 40249977
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