SPC MD 1175

MD 1175 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEASTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA

Mesoscale Discussion 1175
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0546 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

Areas affected...northeastern/north-central Kansas and southeastern
Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 282246Z - 290015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Towering cumulus are developing in northeastern Kansas and
southeastern Nebraska to the southwest of ongoing severe
thunderstorms.  This area will continue to be monitored for
convective initiation and the possibility of a severe thunderstorm
watch.

DISCUSSION...Enhanced vertical development of a cumulus field
feeding into ongoing storms across far southeastern Nebraska and
northwestern Missouri suggests that convective initiation may occur
over northeastern Kansas in the next hour or two.  If thunderstorms
are able to develop, moderate instability (MLCAPE around 2500 J/kg)
and sufficient deep-layer shear (30-40 knots per mesoanalysis)
should support organized updrafts.  These storms would likely pose a
threat of severe hail and damaging winds.  The
westward/southwestward extent of thunderstorm initiation is
uncertain, but if thunderstorm coverage becomes sufficient a watch
may be necessary.

..Jirak/Weiss.. 06/28/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

LAT...LON   40289753 40439680 40559633 40469596 40239567 39839569
            39499624 39209663 39149693 38939759 39149841 39859858
            40289753 

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