MD 1180 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST NEB/PART OF FAR NORTHEAST KS/FAR SOUTHERN IA/PART OF NORTHERN MO
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1180
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0122 AM CDT THU JUL 07 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST NEB/PART OF FAR NORTHEAST KS/FAR SOUTHERN
IA/PART OF NORTHERN MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 070622Z - 070745Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A BOWING LINE OF STORMS...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS...WILL ADVANCE TO THE EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST KANSAS...THROUGH FAR SOUTHERN IOWA AND NORTHERN
MISSOURI /POTENTIALLY INCLUDING PARTS OF THE KANSAS CITY METRO
AREA/.
DISCUSSION...SINCE 05Z...TRENDS IN MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED
DEVELOPING AND ELONGATING BOWING LINE OF STORMS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
NEB INTO ADJACENT NORTH-CENTRAL KS...WITH THIS LINE MOVING TO THE
EAST/EAST-SOUTHEAST AT CLOSE TO 40 KT. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MORE
UNSTABLE THAN FARTHER NORTH INTO IA...WITH AVAILABLE MUCAPE RANGING
FROM 3000-5000 J/KG FROM KS INTO NORTHERN MO. THE INSTABILITY
GRADIENT EXTENDED EAST FROM THE ONGOING SOUTHERN NEB/NORTHERN KS BOW
INTO NORTHERN MO...WHILE A STRENGTHENING SWLY LLJ /UP TO 40-45 KT/
EXTENDED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF KS
INTO NORTHERN MO. WAA AT THE NOSE OF THIS LLJ AND FORCING FOR
ASCENT ATTENDANT TO AN APPARENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING TO THE
EAST ACROSS NEB PER VAD WIND ANALYSIS WILL SUPPORT THIS MCS
PROGRESSING OVERNIGHT TO THE EAST. IN ADDITION...RECENT VAD WINDS
AT UEX SHOWED A WELL-FORMED REAR-INFLOW JET WITH THIS STRENGTHENING
BOW /WESTERLY AT 50+ KT/ BETWEEN 2-5 KM AGL...AND 40-45 KT IN THE
LOWEST LEVELS.
..PETERS/EDWARDS.. 07/07/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...
LAT...LON 40809812 40919699 40999516 40819332 40609272 40069241
39339296 38999387 38949483 38989551 39189664 39459794
39599848 39669879 40059822 40809812
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/29APiy5
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