SPC MD 1184

MD 1184 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 345… FOR NORTHEAST KS/NORTHERN…CENTRAL AND EASTERN MO/PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST IL/FAR SOUTHERN IA

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1184
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0526 AM CDT THU JUL 07 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST KS/NORTHERN...CENTRAL AND EASTERN
MO/PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST IL/FAR SOUTHERN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 345...

VALID 071026Z - 071230Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 345
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE/DAMAGING WIND THREAT CONTINUES TO AFFECT NORTHEAST
KS AND NORTHWEST MO /INCLUDING THE KANSAS CITY METRO AREA/.  A NEW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS LIKELY TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF WW
345 TO INCLUDE A LARGE PORTION OF MO INTO ADJACENT PARTS OF WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN IL.

DISCUSSION...THE FASTEST PORTION OF A BOWING LINE OF STORMS WAS
MOVING THROUGH THE KANSAS CITY METRO AND NORTHEAST KS WITH THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE LINE HAVING A RECENT INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED TO 40-45 KT...WHILE THE NORTHWEST MO PORTION MAINTAINED A
TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 45 KT.  AN INSTABILITY GRADIENT
EXTENDED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DOWNSTREAM OF THE BOWING LINE
SUGGESTING THE SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT WILL PERSIST.  SEVERE AND
NEAR-SEVERE WIND GUSTS HAVE OCCURRED WITHIN WW 345 /FOE
/TOPEKA-FORBES FIELD/ GUSTED TO 63 KT AT 0940Z...WHILE MKC PEAK WIND
WAS 48 KT AT 0948Z AND LXT PEAK WIND WAS 47 KT AT 1007Z/.  GIVEN
THESE TRENDS AND THE FAVORABLE INSTABILITY GRADIENT...A NEW WW WILL
BE COORDINATED AND ISSUED TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF WW 345.

MEANWHILE...FARTHER NORTH...A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS MOVED
INTO THE FAR NORTHEAST EXTENT OF WW 345...AHEAD OF THE
EASTWARD-MOVING NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED LINE OF STORMS.  THIS TREND
WOULD SUGGEST THE OVERALL SEVERE-WEATHER THREAT MAY DIMINISH ACROSS
FAR SOUTHERN IA AS THE ENVIRONMENT UNDERGOES FURTHER CONVECTIVE
OVERTURNING/STABILIZATION.

..PETERS/EDWARDS.. 07/07/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...
TOP...

LAT...LON   38659599 38999501 39529395 40409380 41079382 41089222
            40669218 40159129 39569051 38188897 37578878 36549008
            36829178 37439362 38659599 

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