SPC MD 1190

MD 1190 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS AND FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA

Mesoscale Discussion 1190
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0837 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

Areas affected...western/central Kansas and far northern Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 300137Z - 300300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms over western Kansas are expected to continue
moving eastward and eventually organize into an MCS.  The
severe-weather hazards will include large hail and damaging winds,
transitioning to primarily a wind threat after upscale growth
occurs. A severe thunderstorm watch is likely needed.

DISCUSSION...Severe thunderstorms moving eastward out of western
Kansas will encounter a more unstable environment across central
Kansas, characterized by MUCAPE values around 2500 J/kg and
deep-layer shear around 40 knots.  As the southerly low-level jet
increases this evening across western Oklahoma and the eastern Texas
Panhandle, this should support ongoing storms and new initiation
across southwestern Kansas.  Storms will initially pose a risk of
large hail and damaging winds.  As upscale growth occurs throughout
the evening, damaging winds will become the primary severe-weather
threat.

..Jirak/Weiss.. 06/30/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA...

LAT...LON   37400157 38140081 39060017 39909955 40229925 39939840
            39399756 38619701 37829685 37159723 36739763 36619833
            36599869 36569949 36840082 37400157 

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