SPC MD 1197

MD 1197 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR ERN KS INTO WRN MO

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1197
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0801 PM CDT THU JUL 07 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS INTO WRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 080101Z - 080300Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS
EVENING...WITH SEVERE HAIL AND WIND POSSIBLE. A WATCH COULD BE
REQUIRED.

DISCUSSION...STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO FORM OVER E CNTRL KS WHERE AN
EXTREMELY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS EXISTS WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING
4000 J/KG PER 00Z TOP SOUNDING. GLANCING WARM ADVECTION WITH A SWLY
850 MB JET MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR AN EXPANSION OF STORMS WHICH
COULD INTENSIFY TO SEVERE LIMITS BASED MAINLY ON UPDRAFT STRENGTH AS
SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT BUT MARGINAL. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE
POSSIBLE.

..JEWELL/HART.. 07/08/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   38289713 38789710 39159623 39169419 38689275 37849252
            37259313 37449550 37699651 38289713 

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