MD 1220 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR NORTHEAST TX…SOUTHEAST OK…AND SOUTHWEST AR
Mesoscale Discussion 1220
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0301 AM CDT Mon Jul 03 2017
Areas affected...Far northeast TX...southeast OK...and southwest AR
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 030801Z - 031030Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Locally strong wind gusts will be possible across far
northeast Texas and adjacent counties in southwest AR through 09Z.
Meanwhile, elevated storms developing and spreading to the
east-southeast across southeast OK and far northeast TX into
southwest AR through the early morning will be capable of producing
hail, at times, around 1 inch in diameter.
DISCUSSION...At 0755Z, mosaic radar imagery showed a bowing line of
storms extending from Bowie into Cass Counties TX, with an eastward
motion close to 40 kt. Although this forward speed suggests locally
strong/damaging wind gusts would be possible, these storms are
located north of a convective outflow boundary attendant to the
leading band of storms that has already moved into west-central to
southwest AR. As these storms continue to move east into an
increasingly stable environment across southwest AR, the potential
for stronger-momentum air to reach the surface is expected to
diminish.
Meanwhile, southwesterly low-level winds extend through northeast
TX/southeast OK/southwest AR at speeds of 25-30 kt into the western
extent of the MCS (Bryan to Coal Counties OK) and at 30-40 kt into
far northeast TX and southwest AR. Low-level warm advection
attendant to this low-level jet atop the outflow boundary, which
extended from Nevada County AR to extreme northern Caddo Parish LA,
and then westward through far northern TX, will maintain new
thunderstorm development north and south of the Red River in
southeast OK and northeast TX. IR imagery showed cloud tops warming
with the leading portion of the MCS, suggesting the overall
severe-weather threat will be quite minimal with storms moving into
southwest AR. Recent cloud-top cooling in southeast OK (Byran to
Coal and Atoka Counties) suggests stronger updrafts with some
potential for producing hail, though weak bulk shear of 25-30 kt and
weak midlevel lapse rates may tend to temper hail size.
..Peters/Edwards.. 07/03/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 32979396 33059494 33669645 34359661 34849665 34689597
34489503 34369427 34069379 33759339 33259356 32979396
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2tACNLO
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