MD 1234 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 396… FOR EASTERN ND AND NORTHERN MN
Mesoscale Discussion 1234
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0921 PM CDT Tue Jul 04 2017
Areas affected...Eastern ND and northern MN
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 396...
Valid 050221Z - 050345Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 396
continues.
SUMMARY...Large hail and locally strong wind gusts remain a
severe-weather threat across east-central and southeast ND into
northwest-northern MN.
DISCUSSION...At 0155Z, mosaic radar imagery showed a broken band of
storms extending from northwest MN through east-central to
south-central ND where the air mass remains strongly unstable
(MUCAPE 2000-3000 J/kg). Another band of storms extended northeast
from northern Lake of the Woods County into adjacent northwest
Ontario, with the southern portion of this band affecting north and
northeast portions of Koochiching County between 03-05Z.
IR satellite imagery indicted cloud-tops continuing to cool with the
aforementioned bands of storms, though an increase in surface-based
inhibition with the loss of daytime heating may begin to limit
stronger/severe storm development. Until 03-04Z, steep 2-6 km lapse
rates of 8-8.5 C/km, residual strong instability, and effective bulk
shear around 30 kt will continue to support a few organized severe
storms, with hail and strong wind gusts the main threats.
Meanwhile, storms approaching southeast ND from south-central ND may
increase in intensity as they approach an environment that is more
unstable, suggesting the southwest part of WW 396 should not be
canceled until storms move through this region.
..Peters.. 07/05/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...
LAT...LON 47309841 48029670 48509547 49209483 48759432 48559294
47099294 46109514 45939692 45979799 46599843 47309841
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/1qLVgLd
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