MD 1252 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA…SOUTHERN IOWA…NORTHERN MISSOURI…FAR NORTHEAST KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1252
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0638 PM CDT Mon Aug 06 2018
Areas affected...Southeast Nebraska...southern Iowa...northern
Missouri...far northeast Kansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 062338Z - 070145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Storms along a cold front will be capable of mainly severe
wind gusts with perhaps an isolated instance of severe hail. A WW is
not anticipated though trends in storm organization are being
monitored.
DISCUSSION...Storms have initiated along a cold front from Nemaha
County, KS northeastward to areas along the Iowa/Missouri border in
response to a mid-level wave approaching from the northwest. Local
subsidence in the wake of a weak disturbance now located in western
Illinois appears to be limiting storm coverage currently; however,
increasing influence of the upstream trough should increase coverage
with time. Effective bulk shear values of 30-45 kts -- increasing
modestly with time -- will support storm organization. Modest
mid-level lapse rates should limit the hail threat. Strong surface
heating has contributed to MLCAPE values of 2000-2500 J/kg and, with
low-level lapse rates of 8-9 C/km, a threat for severe wind gusts
will be greatest threat. Concerns regarding the overall coverage of
the threat make a WW unlikely. However, should a more organized
linear system evolve, a WW would be possible.
..Wendt/Hart.. 08/06/2018
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...
LAT...LON 40689647 41209523 41269386 41009200 40619146 40179219
39999350 39849463 39709564 39729637 40219669 40689647
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/29AnI0z
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