MD 1255 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF CNTRL/ERN KS…FAR SERN NEB
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1255
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1056 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF CNTRL/ERN KS...FAR SERN NEB
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 120356Z - 120600Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN KS AND FAR SERN NEB THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING. A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS
ARE BEING MONITORED.
DISCUSSION...RADAR TRENDS SHOW AN INCREASE IN TSTMS ACROSS CNTRL KS
OVER THE PAST HR...WHICH MAY BE PARTIALLY ENHANCED BY A 40-50 KT LLJ
NOW PRESENT OVER OK AND SRN KS. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE ALSO
FORMED ALONG/NEAR A COLD FRONT ENTERING N-CNTRL KS...AND ONE SUCH
TSTM OVER RUSSELL COUNTY KS /AS OF 350Z/ IS EXHIBITING THE POTENTIAL
FOR LARGE HAIL. 12/00Z SOUNDINGS FROM TOP/LMN SHOW AN INVERSION NEAR
2 KM AGL...AND DEVELOPING TSTMS MAY BE PRIMARILY ELEVATED. ONE
EXCEPTION MAY BE ALONG THE COLD FRONT...WHERE LOW-LEVEL FORCING FOR
ASCENT IS STRONGER...AND MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT COULD LEAD TO A
FEW CLUSTERS OR LINE SEGMENTS EVOLVING. THE PRESENCE OF VERY STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES IS YIELDING WIDESPREAD MUCAPE VALUES OF
2000-3000 J/KG...SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL
AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER COVERAGE OF
THESE THREATS WILL WARRANT A WATCH...BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.
..ROGERS/HART.. 07/12/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...
LAT...LON 39309874 40309735 40339616 40129571 39849560 37939542
37759695 37779780 37899854 38569918 38979929 39309874
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/29Mckz4
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