MD 1259 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN KS.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1259
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0827 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN KS.
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 130127Z - 130230Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING NEXT 1-2
HOURS OVER PORTIONS S-CENTRAL KS W-NE ICT AND NEAR HUT...WITH
LOCALIZED...MULTI-HAZARD SVR POTENTIAL. ADDITIONAL TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM FARTHER E FROM FLINT HILLS REGION TOWARD MO VALLEY
THIS EVENING...OFFERING RISK OF ISOLATED SVR HAIL AND DAMAGING
GUSTS. ATTM...TOTAL SVR THREAT APPEARS TOO CONDITIONAL/
ISOLATED...BUT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR
UPSCALE GROWTH THAT COULD COMPEL WW ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION...VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT FIELD OF CU/TCU
HAS SHIFTED N ACROSS S-CENTRAL KS DURING PAST COUPLE HOURS...WITH
MULTIPLE DEEP TOWERS OVER AREAS OF KINGMAN/RENO/PRATT COUNTIES AS OF
115Z. THIS AREA OF DEEPENING CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH
PERSISTENT AREA OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR JUNCTION OF FOUR
FEATURES EVIDENT IN SFC MESOANALYSES...
1. WEAKENING WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDS SW-NE FROM NRN TX PANHANDLE
ACROSS THIS AREA TO EXTREME NERN KS...MOVING NNWWD AROUND 10 KT.
2. RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER MCS...EXTENDING SSEWD
OVER CENTRAL/SERN OK...WHILE SHIFTING NNEWD AND BECOMING MORE
ILL-DEFINED WITH TIME.
3. THERMAL AXIS FROM THIS AREA SWWD ACROSS NWRN OK AND TX SOUTH
PLAINS REGION.
4. MOIST AXIS NEAR BVO...HUT...GCK...LAA LINE...WITH 70S F SFC DEW
POINTS.
HIGH THETAE ASSOCIATED WITH LATTER TWO FEATURES...AND STEEP/EML-
DRIVEN MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...SUPPORT MLCAPE 3000-3500 J/KG THAT
WILL DIMINISH ONLY GRADUALLY WITH TIME DURING NOCTURNAL/DIABATIC
COOLING CYCLE. 35-50 KT EFFECTIVE-SHEAR MAGNITUDES APPARENT OVER
THIS AREA SUGGEST SUPERCELL STRUCTURE IS POSSIBLE...THOUGH SFC WINDS
WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK.
BROAD SHEET OF 30-35-KT 850-MB FLOW ALREADY IS APPARENT ACROSS THIS
REGION...AND MAY STRENGTHEN ANOTHER 5-10 KT THROUGH THIS EVENING...
IN SUPPORT OF BOTH THAT ACTIVITY AND ELEVATED STORMS EXPECTED TO
FORM FARTHER E ACROSS E-CENTRAL/NERN KS. IN LATTER AREA...
ISENTROPIC LIFT TO LFC AND FAVORABLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT ATOP EARLIER
OUTFLOW/CLOUD-COVER-RELATED STABLE LAYER WILL BE PRIMARY FOCUS.
INITIALLY THESE REPRESENT TWO PHYSICALLY DISTINCT REGIMES.
HOWEVER...THEY MAY EFFECTIVELY MERGE IN ANOTHER 2-3 HOURS IF
DIURNALLY AIDED DEVELOPMENT PERSISTS AND MOVES INTO AREAS AFFECTED
BY LLJ/WAA-DRIVEN INITIATION.
..EDWARDS/HART.. 07/13/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...DDC...
LAT...LON 37369790 37629853 38249843 38369789 39479541 38449492
37219660 37369790
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/29VNoZb
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