MD 1268 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SE KS…SW MO AND FAR NE OK
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1268
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0657 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...SE KS...SW MO AND FAR NE OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 132357Z - 140230Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL MAY
DEVELOP THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SE KS...NRN OK AND SW MO.
ALTHOUGH THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINAL...WW ISSUANCE CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT.
DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A FRONT LOCATED FROM SRN KS
EXTENDING NEWD INTO FAR NW MO AND SW IA. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...A
VERY MOIST AIRMASS IS IN PLACE WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S F
ACROSS MUCH OF SE KS...NRN OK AND SRN MO. THIS IS RESULTING IN
STRONG INSTABILITY WITH RAP DATA ESTIMATING MLCAPE VALUES FROM 3000
TO 4000 J/KG ACROSS THE MCD AREA. IN ADDITION...A CORRIDOR OF
ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE EXISTS FROM NW OK EXTENDING ENEWD
ACROSS SRN KS INTO SW MO. THIS WILL BE THE FAVORED CORRIDOR FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING. CONCERNING THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL...THE SPRINGFIELD WSR-88D VWP SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40 TO
45 KT WITH SUBSTANTIAL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BELOW 3 KM AGL. THIS WILL
LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ROTATION AND HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THE
STRONGER UPDRAFTS. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS STORM COVERAGE.
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WEAK ACROSS THE REGION.
VARYING SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECASTS SHOW DIFFERENT SCENARIOS ADDING
TO THE UNCERTAINTY. AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES THIS EVENING...A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MAY OCCUR AND AN ISOLATED
WIND-DAMAGE THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE.
..BROYLES/EDWARDS.. 07/13/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...
LAT...LON 38109659 38189454 37959313 37199259 36919263 36609258
36449306 36379604 35919778 35919837 36409866 36879833
37659745 38109659
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/29Thfi3
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