MD 1520 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1520
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0612 PM CDT Wed Oct 03 2018
Areas affected...much of central Kansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 032312Z - 040145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are likely to develop this
evening, and a few may become marginally severe with a hail or wind
threat.
DISCUSSION...Visible imagery shows TCU developing near a surface
trough from southwest KS into northwest MO, ahead of the primary
cold front which is rapidly approaching from the north. MLCAPE of up
to 2000 J/kg has developed from south central KS into IA, and winds
veer with height and may support a few cells capable of hail or
locally damaging wind gusts.
Storms are first expected to form within the pre-frontal trough
where temperatures are hot, and then may increase in coverage
further as the cold front interacts with the unstable air mass,
especially from northeast KS into northern MO. Any severe threat
will be maximized during the first few hours after development, with
decreasing intensity during the late evening.
..Jewell/Thompson.. 10/03/2018
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...DDC...
LAT...LON 37139942 37050142 37140180 37380176 37610149 38000034
38099994 38269941 38449872 38799818 39239775 39629645
40349437 40389392 40219380 39739382 39359424 37969683
37599774 37289880 37139942
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/1InhsFO
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