SPC MD 1525

MD 1525 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KS AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL MO

Mesoscale Discussion 1525
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0550 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

Areas affected...Portions of eastern KS and northern/central MO

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 182250Z - 190045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Some increase in an isolated threat for strong to damaging
winds and large hail may occur over the next several hours. Watch
issuance appears unlikely at this time, although convective trends
will be closely monitored.

DISCUSSION...A secondary vorticity maximum located over southeastern
NE is embedded within a large-scale upper trough across the Upper
Midwest. At the surface, a low is present over southern IA, with a
weak boundary/front trailing southwestward across northern MO into
northeastern KS per surface observations and trends in visible
satellite imagery. A band of convection has recently formed
along/just north of the surface boundary across northern MO. Given
its fast motion, this activity is probably elevated as of 2245Z.
Several more robust thunderstorms have also formed along the KS/MO
border to the north of Kansas City. This convection appears to be
surface based, and given the presence of strong instability to the
south of the boundary (MLCAPE 2000-3000 J/kg), tendency may be for
these thunderstorms to develop south-southeastward along an
instability gradient this evening.

Although low-level flow remains modest, west/northwesterly winds do
increase at mid/upper levels, and 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear
should provide some potential for updraft organization. Given the
linear forcing of the surface boundary, a cluster or short line
segments may develop from the convection located across the KS/MO
border, with an attendant isolated threat for both damaging winds
and large hail. Convective evolution of the elevated band of storms
through this evening in northern MO is less clear. At this time, the
severe threat may remain too confined in space/time to warrant watch
issuance.

..Gleason/Edwards.. 08/18/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   39429532 39849476 40059358 40569252 40569174 40019156
            39149160 38729199 38219282 37859454 38229535 39079553
            39429532 

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