MD 1530 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS TO THE OZARKS
Mesoscale Discussion 1530
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017
Areas affected...Portions of southern Kansas to the Ozarks
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 191931Z - 192130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...A few thunderstorms may be capable of isolated large hail
and damaging winds this afternoon. However, the threat should remain
sufficiently limited in space, precluding watch issuance.
DISCUSSION...Isolated convection is gradually developing near/south
of a residual stationary front over southeastern Kansas this
afternoon. Ample boundary-layer moisture (e.g., surface dew points
into the lower/mid 70s) and diurnal heating are promoting strong
buoyancy, characterized by MLCAPE values over 3000 J/kg. While flow
beneath 500mb is modest, veering with height is coupled with more
vigorous upper-level flow around 50 kt. Therefore, a few cells may
exhibit transient updraft organization. Combined with the
aforementioned buoyancy, such organization may yield isolated large
hail. Additionally, dry mid-level air, while potentially stunting
weaker updrafts, will enhance downdraft momentum in stronger cores,
with an attendant threat of isolated damaging gusts.
The 20Z convective outlook will extend marginal (5%) hail and wind
probabilities southeastward to include parts of this region.
However, low storm coverage and a lack of greater organization
should preclude watch issuance.
..Picca/Weiss.. 08/19/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 37009675 37409766 37879810 38249799 38419757 38249566
37569337 37339309 36629224 36059255 36119341 36699518
37009675
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