SPC MD 1538

MD 1538 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 451… FOR KS…NRN MO

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1538
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0932 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...KS...NRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 451...

VALID 260232Z - 260400Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 451
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE THREAT MAY LINGER FOR ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS ON WESTERN
AND NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF WW 451...BUT A GENERAL DOWNWARD TREND IS
EXPECTED WITH TIME AND NO ADDITIONAL WATCH ISSUANCE IS ANTICIPATED
DOWNSTREAM.

DISCUSSION...THE STRONGEST CONVECTION ACROSS WW 451 AS OF 0230Z IS
IN THE FAR WRN PART ACROSS W-CNTRL KS AND THE FAR NERN PORTION
ACROSS NWRN MO. ACROSS FAR NERN KS/NWRN MO...TWO RELATIVELY
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS HAVE EVOLVED OUT OF EARLIER ELEVATED
CONVECTION. THESE CLUSTERS WILL AFFECT THE FAR NERN PORTION OF WW
451 AND AREAS DOWNSTREAM INTO NRN MO. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY BEING
AIDED BY ASCENT ATTENDANT TO A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS IA
AND MAY PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS IT MOVES ESEWD. IN THE
SHORT TERM...THIS ACTIVITY WILL POSE A THREAT OF LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND...BUT DECREASING SFC-BASED BUOYANCY WITH TIME SHOULD TEMPER THE
OVERALL SEVERE THREAT AND NO DOWNSTREAM WW ISSUANCE IS ANTICIPATED
AT THIS TIME. 

TO THE WEST...STRONG STORMS ARE ONGOING TO THE NE OF DDC...WITH SOME
BACKBUILDING NOTED ALONG A TRAILING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT IS NEUTRAL AT BEST IN THIS REGION...SO THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
BECOME LESS ORGANIZED WITH TIME AS THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE. WHILE A LOCAL EXTENSION IN TIME IS
POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON SHORT-TERM TRENDS...NEW WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

..DEAN/HART.. 07/26/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...EAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

LAT...LON   37739938 37730030 37820055 38240072 38779988 39209842
            39439697 39939524 40189320 40079264 39619171 39059183
            38829319 38349476 38099635 37829812 37739938 

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from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://1.usa.gov/1fvxgeh