SPC MD 1614

MD 1614 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS AND FAR NORTH-CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST OK

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1614
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 AM CDT WED AUG 05 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS AND FAR
NORTH-CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 050800Z - 051030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE INCREASING FROM
NORTH-CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL KS THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND SPREAD TO THE
SOUTHEAST TOWARD SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS AND FAR NORTH-
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST OK THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.  POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR SOME INCREASE IN THE NUMBER OF STORMS THAT ATTAIN
ORGANIZATION...AND CAPABLE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED HAIL AROUND OR
GREATER THAN 1 INCH IN DIAMETER.  A SECONDARY THREAT WILL BE FOR
LOCALLY STRONGER WIND GUSTS...WITH THIS POTENTIAL BEING GREATER DUE
TO COLD POOL ENHANCEMENT.  CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND
IF THERE IS A GREATER INCREASE IN STRONGER STORM COVERAGE...THEN A
WW WOULD BE CONSIDERED.

DISCUSSION...SINCE 06Z...TRENDS IN MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY HAVE
INDICATED AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND SOMEWHAT WITH
INDIVIDUAL STORM INTENSITIES ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL KS.  THE NW-SE
ORIENTATION OF THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY IS
CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ALONG A STRENGTHENING NW-SE 850-MB THERMAL
GRADIENT...WHICH ALSO COINCIDES WITH THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE CAP
PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSES.  RECENT TRENDS IN IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWED A SPATIAL EXPANSION OF COOLING CLOUD TOPS WITH THIS CLUSTER
OF STORMS...WHILE THE GOES-R OVERSHOOTING TOP PRODUCT IS CONFIRMING
THE PERSISTENT INCREASE IN STRONGER STORMS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL KS. 
IN ADDITION...THE GOES-R CLOUD-TOP COOLING PRODUCT INDICATED RECENT
INCREASES IN COOLING WITH STORMS IN VICINITY OF RICE AND ELLIS
COUNTIES KS.  

THESE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR FURTHER UPSCALE GROWTH...AS FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ALONG THE TRACK OF A SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING CENTRAL
NEB MIDLEVEL TROUGH.  DEEP LAYER ASCENT WILL BE AUGMENTED BY AN
INCREASE IN WAA WITHIN THE TERMINUS OF A STRENGTHENING/VEERING SWLY
LLJ EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL KS TO NORTHEAST OK FROM APPROXIMATELY
09-12Z.  THE SWLY LLJ COUPLED WITH 40-KT NWLY WINDS ACCOMPANYING THE
NEB TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN FAVORABLE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...WHILE
STRENGTHENING DEEP SHEAR IS EXPECTED AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO KS. 
THIS COMBINED WITH THE SWLY LLJ PROVIDING A FEED OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY WHICH EXTENDED FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO
CENTRAL OK/KS SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS INTO
THE EARLY MORNING.

..PETERS/EDWARDS.. 08/05/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...

LAT...LON   39759851 39199735 38339612 37899542 37409500 37059496
            36799523 36719586 36719669 36929742 37389796 38739900
            39489923 39759851 

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from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://1.usa.gov/1MNwYg6