SPC MD 1639

MD 1639 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR E CNTRL KS INTO W CNTRL MO

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1639
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0527 AM CDT SAT AUG 08 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...E CNTRL KS INTO W CNTRL MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 081027Z - 081230Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...IT IS STILL NOT CERTAIN THAT A WATCH IS NECESSARY...BUT A
LINGERING SMALL STORM CLUSTER COULD IMPACT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
GREATER KANSAS CITY METROPOLITAN AREA BY 11-12Z...BEFORE SPREADING
TOWARD THE MISSOURI OZARKS THIS MORNING.  THIS MAY CONTINUE TO BE
ACCOMPANIED BY FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND OCCASIONAL LOCALIZED STRONG TO SEVERE SURFACE GUSTS.

DISCUSSION...A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW MERGER MAY HAVE CONTRIBUTED THE
INTENSIFICATION AND MAINTENANCE OF THE FAIRLY CONCENTRATED BUT
STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT THAT SPREAD FROM THE MANHATTAN TO
TOPEKA AREA DURING THE PAST HOUR OR TWO.  AT LEAST SOME RECENT
WEAKENING HAS BECOME EVIDENT AS IT PROGRESSES EAST SOUTHEASTWARD
AROUND 35 KT.  IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THIS IS JUST A TEMPORARY
FLUCTUATION IN INTENSITY...OR THE BEGINNING OF A CLEAR DIMINISHING
TREND...BUT THESE STORMS DO APPEAR TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF SHIFTING
TO THE EAST OF THE BETTER REMAINING LOW-LEVEL JET FORCING...WHICH
SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH DAYBREAK.  HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AIR MASS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH OF THE STORMS IS
INCREASINGLY MOIST AND CHARACTERIZED BY SIZABLE CAPE.  IT MAY NOT BE
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT FORCING ALONG THE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS COULD
MAINTAIN CONVECTION INTO/THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS BY
13-15Z...WITH AT LEAST SOME CONTINUED RISK FOR STRONG SURFACE GUSTS.

..KERR/EDWARDS.. 08/08/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   39009495 38939425 38419302 37819331 37659447 38209573
            38339583 38639524 39009495 

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from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://1.usa.gov/1IOUrHC