SPC MD 1645

MD 1645 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL/NORTHEASTERN KANSAS INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1645
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0357 PM CDT SAT AUG 08 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/NORTHEASTERN KANSAS INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 082057Z - 082300Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING INITIALLY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS...AND
PERHAPS AS FAR EAST AS SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS.  TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WEATHER WATCH
ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...AN ISOLATED HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORM HAS DEVELOPED NEAR
RSL...WITH ADDITIONAL TOWERING CU IN A BAND FROM RSL SW TO NEAR DDC.
  THIS CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN AN ENVIRONMENT CONTAINING A
WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH 30-35F DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...NEAR
100F SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND 3KM AGL CLOUD BASES INDICATED ON
HIGH-RES MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS.  A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST
DOWNSTREAM OF THIS AREA IF CONVECTION CAN MATURE AND MOVE
EAST/NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE HIGHER BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE LOCATED
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN KANSAS /CONTAINING MID-70S F DEWPOINTS/.  A
NEGATING FACTOR FOR THIS CONDITIONAL THREAT HOWEVER...IS THE
PRESENCE OF UPPER RIDGING AND MID-LEVEL WARMING THAT HAS OCCURRED
THROUGHOUT THE DAY /AS EVIDENCED BY 1900 UTC RAOBS AT OAX AND TOP/
WHICH COULD ACT TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION DEVELOPING NORTHEASTWARD
UNTIL LATER INTO THE EVENING.  CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.

..COOK/GUYER.. 08/08/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

LAT...LON   38939937 39469928 40269871 40639776 40389615 39389558
            38719649 38359800 38559900 38939937 

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from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://1.usa.gov/1ngyY0O