MD 1646 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF EASTERN CO AND WESTERN/CENTRAL KS
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1646
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0358 PM CDT SAT AUG 08 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF EASTERN CO AND WESTERN/CENTRAL KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 082058Z - 082230Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN CO INTO SOUTHWEST TO
CENTRAL KS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WW ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION...UPSLOPE FLOW INTO EASTERN CO WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST CO WHERE THE GOES-R
CLOUD TOP COOLING PRODUCT INDICATED STRONG COOLING RATES AND CAPPI
DATA SHOWED A STRONG/SUSTAINED STORM IN NORTHWEST BACA COUNTY.
MEANWHILE...AN ENHANCED CU LINE WAS DEVELOPING ALONG A CORRIDOR OF
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST INTO
CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL KS...WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS BECOME
DEEPLY MIXED...GIVEN SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND
100 F. FURTHER CU ENHANCEMENT IS POSSIBLE AS AN APPARENT MIDLEVEL
DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NORTHERN NM...PROGRESSES TO THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE PRESENCE OF MODERATELY
STRONG INSTABILITY...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 35-45 KT...AND STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST CO INTO CENTRAL KS ARE
SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
..PETERS/GUYER.. 08/08/2015
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...
LAT...LON 37610298 38360337 39300267 39380163 39000026 38779939
38289923 37799999 37270116 37200266 37610298
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://1.usa.gov/1Iu2i06
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