MD 1651 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 482… FOR EXTREME SERN NEB…SWRN IA AND NWRN MO
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1651
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1111 PM CDT SAT AUG 08 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN NEB...SWRN IA AND NWRN MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 482...
VALID 090411Z - 090545Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 482
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THREAT FOR PRIMARILY DAMAGING WIND AND MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL WILL PERSIST NEXT FEW HOURS. A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR MAINLY WITH STORM OVER EXTREME EXTREME NWRN
MO.
DISCUSSION...CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS PERSISTS FROM
EXTREME SERN NEB INTO SWRN IA AND NWRN MO. STRONGEST STORMS ARE
ALONG THE SERN NEB AND NWRN MO BORDER WHERE ACCESS TO THE MOIST AND
UNSTABLE INFLOW FROM THE WARM SECTOR IS RELATIVELY UNIMPEDED. TOPEKA
VWP SHOWS THE LLJ HAS STRENGTHENED TO 40 KT WITH 400 M2/S2 0-1 KM
STORM RELATIVE HELICITY. HOWEVER...NEAR SFC INVERSION HAS INCREASED
AND SUGGESTS THE EFFECTIVE HELICITY IS LESS THAN WHAT IS INDICATED
IN THE 0-1 KM LAYER...AND THE STABILIZING SFC LAYER SHOULD CONTINUE
TO LIMIT OVERALL TORNADO THREAT. NEVERTHELESS...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SOME SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING EWD THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING WITHIN WARM ADVECTION REGIME POSING A THREAT FOR MAINLY
ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.
..DIAL.. 08/09/2015
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...
LAT...LON 39979536 40099593 40789610 41299419 41169338 40069356
39979536
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://1.usa.gov/1qtHdKp
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