MD 1651 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL THROUGH NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO EXTREME NORTHWEST MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 1651
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0732 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017
Areas affected...central through northeast Kansas into extreme
northwest Missouri
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 170032Z - 170230Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Storms will pose a modest threat for isolated strong to
damaging wind gusts and hail through 02 or 03Z. A WW will probably
not be needed due to the expected limited duration of the threat.
DISCUSSION...Early this evening isolated storms are in the process
of developing along a southeast-advancing cold front that extends
from extreme northwest MO into south-central KS. Topeka 00Z RAOB
sampled the pre-frontal warm sector with moderate (2000 J/kg)
MLCAPE, modest (6.5-7 C/km) mid-level lapse rates and 30 kt surface
to 6 km shear. This environment will support primarily multicell
storms capable of a few downburst winds and some hail next couple
hours. However, increasing convective inhibition associated with a
stabilizing boundary layer suggests these storms will probably begin
a weakening trend by 02Z.
..Dial/Thompson.. 09/17/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 38219813 39449673 40459568 40319506 39579539 38779606
37979741 38219813
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/1qtHdKp
Be First to Comment