MD 0167 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR KS/NE BORDER AREA
Mesoscale Discussion 0167
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0345 PM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018
Areas affected...KS/NE border area
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 232045Z - 232245Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorm development is anticipated by 23Z
which should evolve into a eastward-moving supercell or two along
portions of the KS/NE border. While the spatial extent of the risk
will be latitudinally small, a persistent swath of large hail and
strong outflow winds is possible this evening and may necessitate
severe thunderstorm watch issuance.
DISCUSSION...20Z surface analysis placed a 999 mb cyclone near the
KS/CO/NE borders with a warm front arcing east across north-central
KS to southwest MO. Forcing for ascent tied to a low-amplitude
shortwave trough should result in the surface cyclone tracking
east-southeast into central KS through this evening. A plume of
middle 50s surface dew points is evident across central KS beneath
an elevated mixed-layer and is contributing to weak buoyancy with
MUCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg. High-based convection near the cyclone
should deepen into isolated thunderstorms as it impinges on this
modest moisture plume. Very steep mid-level lapse rates (likely
around 8-9 C/km from 700-500 mb) and strong speed shear above the
LFC should yield a discrete supercell or two with large hail as the
primary hazard, along with strong outflow winds. This risk should be
maximized in a spatially narrow west-east corridor near the
north-central KS/south-central NE border, given large warm-sector
MLCIN. However, it appears probable that a moderate long-lived
supercell threat will exist between about 23-04Z, and a small severe
thunderstorm watch could be warranted.
..Grams.. 03/23/2018
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID...GLD...
LAT...LON 39750091 40250070 40359955 40439811 40299711 40059688
39559721 39459803 39419939 39510067 39750091
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2pCcLUt
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