MD 1691 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR MUCH OF SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO
Mesoscale Discussion 1691
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0255 PM CDT Fri Oct 06 2017
Areas affected...Much of southwest into central Kansas and southeast
Colorado
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 061955Z - 062200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are likely to form across southwest
Kansas and perhaps extreme southeast Colorado by around 21Z. Very
large hail is likely, with an increasing threat of damaging winds
through evening across central Kansas.
DISCUSSION...Surface observations show southwesterly winds have
increased across the High Plains in response to heating and mixing;
east of a developing cold front across CO and NM, and south of a
stationary front from west-central KS into southeast NE. Increasing
CU fields can now be seen on high-res GOES 16 one-minute imagery
from southeast CO into southwest KS as CIN erodes near the surface
low. Although this area is ahead of the main boundaries, low-level
speed convergence exists on the nose of the steeper low-level lapse
rates which is aiding lift.
The 18Z DDC sounding indicated a capping inversion, with mid 80s
temperatures needed to reduce inhibition to zero. Continued heating
as well as the rapidly approaching shortwave trough should allow for
cells to form ahead of the cold front by late afternoon.
The veered southwesterly winds beneath increasing southwesterlies
aloft are resulting in a long, primarily straight hodograph, with
marginal low-level SRH values. This may temper tornado potential
with expected supercells, with the best chance of a brief tornado
during early development and with storms traveling along the
stationary front. Ample instability and favorably increasing speed
shear aloft will favor very large hail with the initial cells. With
time, activity will merge, with cells possibly bowing northeastward
along the front. Damaging winds are expected, along with the
potential for wind-driven hail.
..Jewell/Grams.. 10/06/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...
LAT...LON 37520329 37950353 38990297 39150249 39130175 39030080
39060004 39439881 39389809 38949748 38499746 38129795
37560014 37200216 37250259 37520329
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2z36zbH
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