MD 1705 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS…NORTHERN OKLAHOMA…WESTERN MISSOURI
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1705
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0211 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS...NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA...WESTERN MISSOURI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 181911Z - 182145Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...TSTMS AND ASSOCIATED SVR WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE
FROM N TO S NEAR AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PROGRESSING EWD/SEWD
ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY
WILL ADVANCE EWD INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS
POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...SFC OBSERVATIONS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE
A MULTI-SEGMENTED FRONT...WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF RELATED
LOWER-THETA-E AIR ANALYZED APPROXIMATELY ALONG AN ARC FROM NEAR
BEATRICE NEB TO NEAR SALINA KS TO NEAR GAGE OK. THE FRONTAL ZONE
WILL CONTINUE ADVANCING EWD/SEWD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...BEING A
FOCUS FOR CONTINUED TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN ADDITION TO
W/E-ORIENTED...FRONT-PRECEDING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS ERN KS.
SFC HEATING/PRE-FRONTAL AIR-MASS RECOVERY IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER
CONVECTION/CLOUDS CONTINUE ENCOURAGING PRE-FRONTAL
DESTABILIZATION -- STRONGEST ACROSS S-CNTRL KS INTO ADJACENT NRN OK
WHERE TEMPS HAVE REACHED THE MID/UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F AMIDST
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S SUPPORTING MLCAPE AROUND 2000-3000 J/KG.
INITIAL TSTMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING INVOF THE FRONT IN NRN KS...AND
THIS ACTIVITY MAY INTENSIFY AS IT ENCOUNTERS MODIFYING/DESTABILIZING
AIR TO THE E. ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL DEVELOP ITERATIVELY
TO THE S INVOF THE FRONTAL ZONE AND TO ITS E ALONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES -- EVENTUALLY INTO N-CNTRL OK BY LATE AFTERNOON AT THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES /IN THE LOWER 90S/
EMANATING FROM THE SW. WATER-VAPOR LOOPS IMPLY THE STRONGEST ASCENT
RESIDING ACROSS KS/MO WHERE THE GREATEST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL
LIKELY EXIST...THOUGH AT LEAST ISOLATED TSTMS SHOULD TRAIL SWD INTO
OK BY EVENING.
VWPS SUGGEST AROUND 30-35 KT OF DEEP SHEAR RESIDING ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH SOME FLOW-DIRECTION VARIABILITY STEMMING FROM A
VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILE. THIS SHOULD OFFER THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE OCCURRENCES...POSSIBLY INCLUDING
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND SMALL QUASI-LINEAR SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED SVR HAIL/WIND. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP...AND SFC WINDS HAVE BEEN VEERING WITH TIME
AS LOW-LEVEL MASS FIELDS ADJUST IN TANDEM WITH THE NEWD ADVANCE OF
THE STRONGER SFC CYCLONE -- LIMITING THE OVERALL TORNADO POTENTIAL.
HOWEVER...A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT /1/ ALONG
VORTICITY-RICH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.../2/ IN MODIFYING AIR WHERE THE
PBL IS SHELTERED OFFERING GREATER VERTICAL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...AND
/3/ IN THE PLUME OF STEEPER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXTENDING INTO
N-CNTRL OK.
..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 08/18/2015
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...
LAT...LON 37789794 38639761 39149724 39819630 39649439 38139411
37099538 36239734 35929828 36109906 36609900 37789794
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://1.usa.gov/1rEkIAd
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