SPC MD 1706

MD 1706 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS

Mesoscale Discussion 1706
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0220 PM CDT Mon Oct 09 2017

Areas affected...Portions of eastern Oklahoma and southeastern
Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 091920Z - 092115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered severe storms are expected to
develop over the next few hours. These storms will persist through
the mid/late evening hours, with an attendant threat of large hail,
damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two. Watch issuance is
likely within the next 1-2 hours.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite this afternoon depicts two areas of
increasing convective potential -- one stretching across
east-central Oklahoma ahead of a cold front and another over
southeast Kansas ahead of a weak surface low. Large-scale mid/upper
ascent likely remains somewhat weak, with the primary shortwave
trough situated over the Four Corners region. However, ongoing
heating, modest warm-air advection ahead of the low, and convergence
along the cold front will likely be sufficient to overcome any
remaining inhibition across the region.

While mid-level lapse rates are not particularly steep (generally 7
C/km or less) across eastern OK and southeast KS, rich
boundary-layer moisture and sufficient heating have yielded around
1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Meanwhile, increasing 500mb
southwesterlies atop low-level south/southeasterly winds are
offering ample effective shear for updraft organization/rotation. In
turn, more robust cores will be capable of large hail and damaging
winds through this evening. A tornado or two may also be possible
early this evening, considering the backed surface flow across far
southeast KS and eastern OK. However, the advance of the cold front
and loss of favorable surface-based buoyancy with eastward extent
will likely keep the tornado threat rather confined in space/time.
Regardless, watch issuance is likely within the next 1-2 hours.

..Picca/Grams.. 10/09/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   34989651 35449696 36149708 37089705 37329717 37949676
            38099597 37919542 37289506 36149472 35079498 34759595
            34989651 

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