SPC MD 1737

MD 1737 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 499… FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEB AND SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL IA TO NORTHERN KS/NORTHWEST MO

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1737
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0621 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SOUTHEAST NEB AND SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL IA TO
NORTHERN KS/NORTHWEST MO

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 499...

VALID 222321Z - 230045Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 499 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE MAIN SUPERCELL-RELATED LARGE HAIL/TORNADO POTENTIAL
EXISTS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NEB AND NEARBY NORTHEAST KS/FAR
SOUTHWEST IA/FAR NORTHWEST MO THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND A LIMITED HAIL/TORNADO RISK ELSEWHERE WITHIN TORNADO WATCH
499...WHICH CONTINUES UNTIL 05Z.

DISCUSSION...AN EAST/SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
STEADILY MERGE WITH/OVERTAKE CONVECTION NEAR THE LINCOLN/OMAHA NEB
AREAS INTO WEST-CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL IA AS OF 6PM CDT/23Z. SOME
DAMAGING WIND AND A LIMITED HAIL/TORNADO RISK WILL EXIST WITH THE
LINEAR/CLUSTERED CONVECTION ACROSS IA...WHILE THE MAIN
SUPERCELL-RELATED LARGE HAIL/SOME TORNADO RISK WILL EXIST WITH
PRE-FRONTAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NEB AND NEARBY
NORTHEAST KS/FAR SOUTHWEST IA/FAR NORTHWEST MO...PRIOR TO THIS
CONVECTION BEING OVERTAKEN BY THE COLD FRONT. SPC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
AND CONTEMPORARY MODIFICATIONS TO AN EARLIER 18Z OBSERVED SOUNDING
FROM OMAHA SUGGESTS THAT PRE-FRONTAL MLCAPE IS IN THE 2000-3000 J/KG
RANGE FROM NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST KS INTO FAR SOUTHEAST
NEB/SOUTHWEST IA...WITH SUFFICIENTLY STRONG WIND PROFILES FOR A FEW
SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT SEEMS LIKELY
TO OCCUR ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST KS NEAR/POSSIBLY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...ALTHOUGH NEAR-FRONTAL FOCUSED/INCREASINGLY LINEAR
CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME THE PRIMARY SCENARIO BY MID/LATE-EVENING.

..GUYER.. 08/22/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...

LAT...LON   39419865 40029845 40519710 42189505 41799303 40609397
            39429473 38699615 39209781 39419865 

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from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://1.usa.gov/XS3hEp