SPC MD 1752

MD 1752 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CNTRL KS

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1752
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0516 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 272216Z - 280015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE WIND/HAIL AND A BRIEF TORNADO MAY
ACCOMPANY SCATTERED STORMS REMAINING ALONG THE DRYLINE THROUGH ABOUT
SUNSET.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AS A REMNANT WWD-MOVING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS MERGING WITH THE DRYLINE OVER CNTRL KS. WHILE
HOT SURFACE TEMPERATURES FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S TO THE W OF
THE DRYLINE IS SUPPORTING MODERATE INSTABILITY...SURFACE TEMPERATES
HAVE COOLED RATHER RAPIDLY WITH PASSAGE OF THIS OUTFLOW IN S-CNTRL
KS. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE SPATIAL EXTENT OF TSTMS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN CONFINED ALONG THE DRYLINE. WITH A PRONOUNCED WEAKNESS IN
MID-LEVEL WLYS PER DDC VWP DATA...CONVECTION SHOULD STRUGGLE TO
GREATLY ORGANIZE...ESPECIALLY WITH SRN EXTENT. BUT WITH A
STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ...A BRIEF TORNADO IS POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF
N-CNTRL KS.

..GRAMS/GUYER.. 08/27/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

LAT...LON   39869864 39949816 39929761 39609738 38079817 37269906
            37339988 38409960 39389913 39869864 

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from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://1.usa.gov/1NDnmFZ