MD 1763 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR ERN KS THROUGH NRN MO
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1763
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0806 PM CDT WED OCT 05 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS THROUGH NRN MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 060106Z - 060330Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM PORTIONS OF ERN
KS THROUGH NRN MO BETWEEN 02-04Z. A FEW INSTANCES OF MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED.
DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS EVENING A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM NRN MO
SWWD THROUGH SCNTRL KS. ROBUST THETA-E ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL LLJ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO NWD DESTABILIZATION
WITH TIME. HOWEVER...00Z RAOBS FROM TOPEKA AND SPRINGFIELD SHOW WARM
LAYERS ALOFT LIKELY DUE TO SUBSIDENCE...RESULTING IN WEAK/MODEST
/6-6.5 C/KM/ 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES. AS A RESULT MUCAPE SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN AOB 1700 J/KG NORTH OF WARM FRONT. STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 02-03Z FROM PARTS OF ERN KS INTO NRN MO WHERE
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND DESTABILIZATION WILL BE AUGMENTED BY THE LLJ
INTERACTING WITH THE WARM FRONT. STORMS WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WITH PRIMARY THREAT BEING MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL...BUT A FEW INSTANCES OF GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. THE MODEST
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR DECREASING TO
35-40 KT WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY MULTICELL STORM MODES...BUT A FEW
STORMS COULD DEVELOP WEAK MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION.
..DIAL/EDWARDS.. 10/06/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LSX...EAX...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 38139512 37569607 37929651 39069570 39809441 39969267
39709188 39379209 38669394 38139512
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2dTCYr9
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