MD 1764 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CNTRL OK THROUGH SCNTRL AND SERN KS
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1764
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1103 PM CDT WED OCT 05 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL OK THROUGH SCNTRL AND SERN KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 060403Z - 060600Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STORMS MAY POSE A RISK FOR A FEW INSTANCES OF MAINLY
HAIL...BUT POSSIBLY ALSO GUSTY WINDS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TOO MARGINAL FOR A WW.
DISCUSSION...AS OF LATE THIS EVENING STORMS ARE ON THE INCREASE FROM
CNTRL OK THROUGH ERN KS. ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF AND
NORTH OF A SW-NE ORIENTED QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WITHIN WARM
ADVECTION REGIME ASSOCIATED WITH A STRENGTHENING LLJ. THE ATMOSPHERE
IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE FROM 1500-2000 J/KG...AND 35-40
KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SOME POTENTIAL FOR
HAIL...ESPECIALLY WITH LEFT SPLITS WHILE STORMS ARE STILL DISCRETE.
HOWEVER...AS EVIDENCED BY THE 00Z OUN RAOB AND RAP FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...A WARM LAYER PRESENT NEAR 500 MB IS LIMITING MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WHICH MAY MITIGATE STRENGTH OF UPDRAFTS AND A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL HAIL THREAT. MOREOVER...STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY CONGEAL
INTO MULTICELL CLUSTERS WITH TIME...AND THIS WILL SERVE AS A
LIMITING FACTOR FOR A LONGER-DURATION HAIL THREAT.
..DIAL/EDWARDS.. 10/06/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...
LAT...LON 37209564 36349655 35439798 35829834 36929735 38279609
37979469 37209564
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2dvAgsS
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