MD 1765 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SERN NEB…SWRN IA…NERN KS…FAR NWRN MO
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1765
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1115 AM CDT THU OCT 06 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB...SWRN IA...NERN KS...FAR NWRN MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 061615Z - 061815Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR ISOLATED SVR HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY ONGOING
ELEVATED TSTMS OVER SERN NEB...FAR NERN KS...AND SWRN IA. WATCH
ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED IN THE NEAR-TERM...BUT WILL BECOME MORE
PROBABLE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE POTENTIAL FOR ALL SVR HAZARDS
INCREASES.
DISCUSSION...SCATTERED ELEVATED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED N OF A WARM
FRONT INTO SERN NEB. WHILE RECENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY
IS MOSTLY SUB-SEVERE...A GRADUAL INCREASE IN INTENSITY CONTINUES TO
OCCUR. A GRADUAL NWD MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT INTO SERN NEB IS
OCCURRING AS POCKETS OF STRONGER HEATING ARE NOTED ACROSS NERN
KS...AND THIS IS SUPPORTING MORE SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION NWD.
THE PRIMARY SHORT-TERM THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING ACTIVITY
APPEARS TO BE LARGE HAIL AMIDST STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BUT A
COOL BOUNDARY LAYER. ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON IS LIKELY FROM A TRIPLE POINT OVER CNTRL KS NEWD INTO SERN
NEB AND SWRN IA ALONG A WARM FRONT...WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ALL SEVERE HAZARDS MAY EXIST. WHILE NEAR-TERM
CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE MORE UNCERTAIN FOR IMMEDIATE WATCH
ISSUANCE...THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR INCREASING SVR POTENTIAL INTO
THE AFTERNOON MAKES WATCH ISSUANCE MORE LIKELY AFTER 18Z.
..ROGERS/KERR.. 10/06/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...
LAT...LON 41089475 39579598 38839723 38729823 38799857 39379866
40899796 41619660 41669513 41089475
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2dVB0u7
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