MD 1766 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR CNTRL/ERN KS…SERN NEB…SWRN IA…NWRN MO
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1766
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0122 PM CDT THU OCT 06 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN KS...SERN NEB...SWRN IA...NWRN MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 061822Z - 062015Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR ALL SVR HAZARDS WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON FROM CNTRL KS INTO PARTS OF WRN IA. RAPID TSTM DEVELOPMENT
IS EXPECTED ALONG A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...AND A TORNADO WATCH
WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED BY 20Z.
DISCUSSION...A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WILL
ACCELERATE NEWD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND WILL SUPPORT AN EWD
COLD FRONTAL SURGE ACROSS WRN/CNTRL PORTIONS OF KS/NEB AS A SFC LOW
BECOMES REPOSITIONED TOWARDS THE MID-MO VALLEY THIS EVENING. FORCING
FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE
IMPULSE...ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING LEADING TO A WEAKENING OF
CINH...IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A RAPID INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON FROM SRN NEB INTO CNTRL KS. OTHER TSTMS
WILL PERSIST/DEVELOP ALONG A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS FAR SERN
NEB INTO CNTRL IA...AS A 30-40 KT LLJ REMAINS FOCUSED ACROSS THIS
AREA. ONE POTENTIAL AREA OF IMMEDIATE CONCERN IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
TSTM MOVING INTO SWRN IA /AS OF 1820Z/ AND TRACKING CLOSE TO THE
WARM FRONT...WHILE THE AIR MASS DESTABILIZES ACROSS WRN/CNTRL IA.
THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
HAS CENTERED AROUND THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION THAT CAN
OCCUR...BUT VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS REVEAL MORE WIDESPREAD CLEARING
ACROSS NERN KS INTO SWRN IA AMIDST A THINNING CIRRUS FIELD. MLCAPE
VALUES RANGING FROM 500-1000 J/KG ACROSS IA TO 2000-3000 J/KG ACROSS
CNTRL KS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED AROUND THE TIME OF MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
STRONG LOW-MIDLEVEL WIND PROFILES WILL FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP. AN ASSOCIATED TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN GREATEST ALONG THE WARM FRONT...AND PERHAPS ASSOCIATED WITH
ANY DISCRETE TSTMS THAT INITIALLY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT INTO
CNTRL KS. THE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD EVENTUALLY RESULT IN UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A MCS THIS
EVENING...WITH A DMGG WIND THREAT EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY BECOME
DOMINANT.
..ROGERS/KERR.. 10/06/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...
LAT...LON 38829890 39749800 40429650 41379549 41689480 41699368
41339337 40689374 39379526 38169632 37069700 37079871
38829890
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2cVg85b
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