MD 1768 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 493… FOR ERN KS THROUGH SERN NEB…SWRN IA AND NWRN MO
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1768
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0512 PM CDT THU OCT 06 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS THROUGH SERN NEB...SWRN IA AND NWRN MO
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 493...
VALID 062212Z - 062345Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 493 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THREAT FOR TORNADOES INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
TORNADOES WILL REMAIN GREATEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN KS THROUGH
00Z. THE OVERALL THREAT SHOULD TRANSITION TO DAMAGING WIND TOWARD
MID EVENING...BUT SOME TORNADO THREAT MAY PERSIST BEYOND 02Z.
DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS EVENING A LINE OF SUPERCELLS CONTINUES
DEVELOPING ALONG DRYLINE FROM NERN THROUGH SCNTRL KS. A NARROW
CORRIDOR OF STRONG INSTABILITY RESIDES DOWNSTREAM FROM THE STORMS
WHERE 50 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND 300-400 M2/S2 STORM-RELATIVE
HELICITY EXISTS IN WARM SECTOR AND IN VICINITY OF A MODIFIED
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THREAT FOR TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE
HAIL WILL REMAIN GREATEST AS STORMS EVOLVE WITHIN THIS ENVIRONMENT
NEXT COUPLE HOURS AND WHILE UPDRAFTS REMAIN AT LEAST PARTIALLY
DISCRETE. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT IS SURGING EWD AND MERGING WITH THE
DRYLINE...AND THIS PROCESS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO AN EVENTUAL UPSCALE
LINEAR GROWTH SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN DAMAGING WIND THREAT BY 01Z.
OTHER STORMS PERSIST ACROSS SERN KS. THESE STORMS HAVE EVOLVED INTO
A CLUSTER. HOWEVER...THEY REMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES. DAMAGING WIND AND A
FEW TORNADOES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH 00Z.
..DIAL.. 10/06/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 37879761 39599685 39679586 38729611 37859583 37189561
37079763 37879761
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2dywZc0
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