MD 1788 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SERN NEB…NERN KS
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1788
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB...NERN KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 100556Z - 100800Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...LOCALIZED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY YET PERSIST THROUGH
ABOUT 08Z NEAR THE NEB/KS BORDER AREA...BUT CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN
AS IT PROGRESSES FARTHER INTO KS THIS MORNING.
DISCUSSION...LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL REMAINS EVIDENT ACROSS ERN THAYER
COUNTY NEB AS OF 0550Z...ALTHOUGH STORM REPORTS THUS FAR HAVE ONLY
YIELDED ONE-INCH DIAMETER HAIL SINCE 01Z. DESPITE PROGRESSIVELY
SMALLER MUCAPE COMPARED TO EARLIER IN THE EVENING...UEX VWP DATA
SAMPLED SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LEVEL VEERING INDICATIVE OF MODERATE WAA
EMANATING FROM WRN KS TO THE N-CNTRL KS/S-CNTRL BORDER. RECENT
ESRL-HRRR RUNS APPEAR TO BE TOO FAST WITH WEAKENING CONVECTION.
DIMINISHING INTENSITY WILL PROBABLY AWAIT UNTIL CONVECTION
ENCOUNTERS LIGHTER LOW-LEVEL WINDS/WEAKER WAA ABOUT A TIER OR TWO OF
COUNTIES INTO NERN KS.
..GRAMS/EDWARDS.. 09/10/2015
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID...
LAT...LON 40459784 40589745 40049643 39849636 39509640 39339670
39319705 39559747 40059787 40459784
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://1.usa.gov/1LlpKvb
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