SPC MD 1794

MD 1794 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 508… FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SRN NEB…NRN…WESTERN AND CENTRAL KS

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1794
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0527 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SRN NEB...NRN...WESTERN AND
CENTRAL KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 508...

VALID 102227Z - 110000Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 508
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS MAY ALSO
INTENSIFY AND A WATCH IS POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA PRIOR TO 2330Z.

DISCUSSION...AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL STORM WAS LOCATED OVER ROOKS
COUNTY KS AT 2210Z...WITH A LOOSELY-ORGANIZED LINE OF SEVERE STORMS
ALONG I-80 IN CENTRAL NEB. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A DRYLINE
EXTENDING ACROSS WESTERN KS AND INTERSECTING AN EAST-WEST FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NEAR THE KS-NEB BORDER IN THE VICINITY OF THE ROOKS COUNTY
STORM...WHERE MODERATE-STRONG SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WAS PRESENT.
RECENT VWP DATA FROM KUEX REVEALS SUBSTANTIAL DEEP-LAYER SHEAR /45
KTS IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER/ AND THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN CONDUCIVE
FOR LARGE HAIL...PERHAPS VERY LARGE...AND DAMAGING WINDS INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS NEB IN THE WAKE OF
THUNDERSTORM PASSAGE REFLECT SUBSTANTIAL COOLING/COLD POOL
GENERATION...AND WITH TIME THE STORMS MAY POSE AN INCREASING THREAT
FOR DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS AS
OUTFLOW CONGEAL.

THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING/INTENSIFYING ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS...WHERE WEAK-MODERATE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WAS PRESENT
WITHIN A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...AND 40-50 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS...AND WATCH ISSUANCE IS
POSSIBLE.

..BUNTING/THOMPSON.. 09/10/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   40950104 41409972 41299909 41199751 40449680 39119624
            38379610 38179657 38319752 38289818 38129887 37720043
            37730161 38170145 39600083 40950104 

Read more

from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://1.usa.gov/1KbCLXk