SPC MD 1795

MD 1795 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR CENTRAL NY

Mesoscale Discussion 1795
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0930 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

Areas affected...Central NY

Concerning...Heavy snow 

Valid 120330Z - 120930Z

SUMMARY...Snowfall rates will increase gradually through 06-09z,
with peak rates likely to exceed 1 inch per hour from about 07-12z.

DISCUSSION...In association with a midlevel shortwave trough
approaching the upper OH Valley, a deformation snow band has been
developing eastward over Lake Erie.  Low-midlevel warm
advection/ascent in advance of the trough, as well as weak
frontogenesis, will support additional eastward expansion of the
snow band across central NY through the early morning hours. 
Top-down saturation of the column is just beginning across western
into central NY, and snowfall rates will increase as column
saturation develops eastward and forcing for ascent increases
through the early morning hours.  Peak snowfall rates should
approach or exceed 1 inch per hour, and may persist for 3-6 hours at
locations within the expected corridor of the snow band.

..Thompson.. 12/12/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

LAT...LON   43217361 43007412 42747497 42497608 42457687 42517744
            42667771 43037760 43837544 44037419 43947361 43617347
            43217361 

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