SPC MD 181

MD 0181 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL TX

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0181
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1141 PM CST MON MAR 07 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 080541Z - 080745Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE WATCH ISSUANCE BY 08Z.

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INITIATED NEAR MIDLAND AS
DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO. INCREASING ASCENT IS
EVIDENT IN IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AS AREA OF COOLING CLOUD TOPS
OVERSPREADS THE NORTHEASTERN MEXICO MOUNTAINS INTO SOUTHWEST TX.
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER FLOW IS ALSO NOTED ON REGION
88-D VWP/S. AS THE SURFACE DRYLINE HAS RETREATED WESTWARD ACROSS
WEST TX...DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN DRAMATICALLY INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW
60S F. AS A RESULT...MUCAPE VALUES NEAR 1500-2000 J/KG HAVE
OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE MCD AREA. STRONG 0-6KM SHEAR NEAR 50 KT AND
STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 8 DEG C/KM SAMPLED BY 00Z
REGIONAL RAOBS WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL. STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AND COUPLED WITH
FAST STORM MOTION...COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONGER WIND GUSTS.
CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR WATCH ISSUANCE
BY 08Z.

..LEITMAN/THOMPSON.. 03/08/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   29740246 30980284 31730267 32250243 32830191 33020157
            33080135 33160084 33110031 32989997 32649957 32229940
            30349949 29859963 29420012 29130069 29440106 29620139
            29740153 29760205 29740246 

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from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://1.usa.gov/1xAWnEE