MD 1811 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF WEST AND NORTHWEST TX TO FAR SOUTHWEST TX
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1811
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0307 PM CDT WED NOV 02 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WEST AND NORTHWEST TX TO FAR SOUTHWEST TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 022007Z - 022230Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP FROM THE
SOUTHERN PERMIAN BASIN THROUGH THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS OF TX TO
SOUTHWEST OK. ISOLATED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS APPROACHING OR LOCALLY
EXCEEDING SEVERE VALUES WILL BE THE GREATEST THREATS.
DISCUSSION...EARLY-MID AFTERNOON SURFACE STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWED
AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE EXTENDING FROM WEST TX /NEAR ANDREWS COUNTY/
TO THE CHILDRESS TX AREA INTO SOUTHWESTERN/WESTERN OK. MEANWHILE...
LOW-LEVEL WINDS HAVE MAINTAINED A POLEWARD RETURN OF MOISTURE
/SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER-MID 60S/ SOUTH OF THAT BOUNDARY.
THIS COUPLED WITH POCKETS OF SURFACE HEATING /UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80
F/ BENEATH MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES UP TO 7.5 C/KM ARE RESULTING IN
MUCAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED AN AREA OF
CLOUD-TOP COOLING ACROSS FAR EASTERN NM AND THE WESTERN TX PANHANDLE
THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE AREA VAD WINDS DETECTED A CORRESPONDING
INCREASE OF SOUTHERLY 500-MB WINDS UP TO 35 KT. FORCING FOR ASCENT
ATTENDANT TO THIS APPARENT EASTERN NM MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH/JET
STREAK MAY BE AIDING IN RECENT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN
LAMB/HOCKLEY COUNTIES AND REEVES COUNTY...AS IT SPREADS ACROSS THE
WEST/NORTHWEST EXTENT OF MOISTURE RETURN. A FURTHER INCREASE IN
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTS SOME STORMS COULD BECOME ORGANIZED WITH
ISOLATED HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS. RELATIVELY
SUBTLE DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY TEND TO LIMIT COVERAGE OF ANY
SEVERE-WEATHER THREAT.
..PETERS/HART.. 11/02/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...
LAT...LON 32150294 32890281 34420126 35060002 35099921 34449902
33589996 32690087 31970166 31780239 31910274 32150294
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/1MtLxqC
Be First to Comment