MD 1812 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NERN KS THROUGH NRN MO AND CNTRL IL
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1812
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0332 PM CDT WED NOV 02 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS THROUGH NRN MO AND CNTRL IL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 022032Z - 022230Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THREAT FOR A FEW INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY
STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL PERSIST FROM NERN KS THROUGH NRN MO INTO
CNTRL IL INTO EARLY EVENING. OVERALL COVERAGE OF SEVERE EVENTS IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR A WW.
DISCUSSION...THIS AFTERNOON A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM
NRN IL SWWD THROUGH NRN MO INTO NERN AND SCNTRL KS. WARM SECTOR
SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE
FROM 2000 J/KG OVER ERN KS TO AROUND 1000 J/KG OVER CNTRL IL.
POCKETS OF DIABATIC WARMING WILL FURTHER DESTABILIZE BOUNDARY LAYER
NEXT COUPLE HOURS. THIS ALONG WITH CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND WEAK
VORTICITY MAXIMA EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SWLY FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE
TO PROMOTE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT FARTHER SOUTH INTO ERN KS MAY OCCUR BY 22Z.
MODERATE INSTABILITY...7 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 30-35 KT
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL PROMOTE SOME STORM ORGANIZATION INCLUDING
POTENTIAL FOR MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE
BOWING SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF A FEW INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
..DIAL/HART.. 11/02/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...EAX...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 39479444 39909228 40429044 41118894 40438790 39658924
38609445 37709634 38679598 39479444
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/1OAMUDf
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